California Dreaming & the Electoral College
Why Bush May End Up Winning California
By The Cynic
cynic@politicalusa.com
I am not one to make predictions, they are usually a sure fire way to make a complete ass out of yourself, but I've got this sneaking suspicion that George W. Bush will not only win this election, but will carry California as well. Now this is not wishful thinking (if I vote for Bush it will be by default), it is the result of analyzing poll results in a manner that is more consistent with actual election day results.
Any day now, the media will be yammering about how the posting of the election results from Eastern and Midwestern states could suppress voter turnout in the Western states. The thinking goes that if one candidate has a handle on the election, the voters in the Western states become disinterested as their votes won't matter and will fail to show up. Using poll statistics from Rasmussen Research, I've decided to examine the election in a realtime fashion, breaking the results down by time zone. (Keep in mind, this is assuming everything is as it is now, barring GW calling Gore an a-hole or Gore taking credit for the theory of relativity. Toss up states going to whoever is leading, regardless of margin)
Eastern Time Zone Results
The polls in the Eastern time zone will close 3 hours before the West. Gore has a lock on the Northeast. He will easily take New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island. He will also take Delaware, Maryland and the District of Columbia. This will give him 91 electoral votes.
Assuming GW's brother delivers Florida (assuming; yet another way to make an ass of oneself. I may regret this column), Bush will lock up the Southeast and the battleground states of Pennsylvania and Michigan. The rest of the states are Republican strongholds and Bush will win these. Bush will have 168 electoral votes.
3 hours before the Western polls close Bush is up 168-91.
Central Time Zone Results
Al Gore wins big in Illinois. He wins Minnesota, Iowa and Arkansas by smaller percentages, but wins them nonetheless. Adding these 45 electoral votes to his total Gore now has 136 electoral votes.
Bush obviously takes his home state of Texas and it's massive 32 electoral votes. The neighboring states of Louisiana and Oklahoma are virtual locks for Bush and he will take these plus the low electoral count states of the Great Plains and the battleground Missouri. Bush is now within a breath of the magic 270 electoral votes needed to secure a win.
This leaves us with Al Gore's homestate of Tennessee. Currently Bush is leading 45%-42% in Tennessee. This is very telling. Bush will win in Tennessee by a slight margin, but just enough to deliver the knock out blow to the Gore campaign (ironic, huh?). Bush will have 279 electoral votes.
2 hours before the Western polls close, Bush has secured the Presidency and leads Gore 279 to 136
Mountain Time Zone
Welcome to Bush country. Bush takes every state in this time zone: Utah, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona. This gives Bush 315 votes.
1 hour before the Western polls close, Bush maintains his dominance and leads 315 to 136.
The West and the Rest
By the time the polls close in the West the election will have been over for 2 hours. Washington, Oregon and Nevada appear to be in Bush's corner and will deliver him their electoral votes.
Which leads me to California... Gore is currently leading in California by 6 percentage points. One thing to keep in mind is that when a poll is taken, regardless of who takes it, they cannot determine the likelihood of someone voting with so many of the results having been posted. Voter turnout will be low in California, and historically this favors the GOP. The Democrats in CA may very well pull the lever for Ralph Nader as a way of thumbing their nose at the party for nominating a loser. Bush will win by a slight margin and take the 54 electoral votes, leaving only Alaska and Hawaii to chime in with Gore taking Hawaii.
The polls are closed with final electoral count being Bush: 398 Gore: 140
We are still waiting for the "October Surprise" although it is becoming less likely to happen with the President being tied up with Israeli/Arab conflicts. Things can change and so can the polls. I may be considerably off on these predictions, and if I am I will delete this column from my archives and deny ever writing it.
© The Cynic, 2024
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